Will California Vote for Bernie Sanders?

The latest polls show a comfortable lead for Bernie Sanders in California, with the most recent ones indicating a lead of 3.6% in one, 14% in another, and a consistent 3-6% margin overall. It is unlikely that either Biden, Warren, or other candidates can turn this lead. Sanders' momentum has been growing, with significant victories in New Hampshire and narrowing gaps in South Carolina, Texas, and Nevada. His performance in the Iowa results, where he won both the popular vote and the delegate count, further solidifies his standing.

Centrism in California Democrats

California's Democratic electorate tends to lean more centrist compared to the overall party platform. In 2016, California voters chose a centrist candidate over Bernie Sanders by a substantial margin. There is no reason to believe this preference has changed. However, a recent LA Times poll suggests a close to three-way tie between Sanders, Biden, and Warren, with older voters favoring Biden. The high turnout among primary voters could influence these early results.

Reliable Polling Data

I rely on my go-to pollster, which has a rigorous methodology and blends the results of various polls based on their historical accuracy and methodological strength. Their ongoing results for California and other primary states can be found here: Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination. The current prediction is that Biden is narrowly tied with Sanders, with Biden likely to secure a plurality of delegates.

Final Considerations for the Democratic Nomination

Based on one critical factor, I am inclined to vote for Biden. He seems most likely to defeat Trump if anyone can, given the tilted playing field due to Russian/Republican shenanigans. However, as any sane American, I will ultimately vote for the Democratic candidate, whoever they may be.

It's worth noting that Bernie Sanders is positioned as the far-left candidate, and California, as a progressive state, often aligns with him. Historically, in 2016, Bernie lost California by 46-53. Against a single opponent, his performance would likely be similar.

With multiple candidates, the division of support becomes crucial. Delegate allocation doesn't operate on a winner-takes-all basis, so it's possible for multiple candidates to secure enough delegates. To understand the complexities, it's essential to remember how Trump secured the Republican nomination in 2016. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined to outpoll Trump in most early and Southern primaries.