The Unlikely Fates of Tywin Lannister and the Westerosi Kingdoms: Incest and War

The Immediate Consequences of Incest Revelation

Imagine the scene: Robert Baratheon, the King, witnessing an act of incest between his wife, Cersei, and her brother, Jaime Lannister. This situation brings forth a multitude of complex and intricate scenarios that unfold, each with severe repercussions for the Lannister family and the entirety of Westeros.

Denial and Suppression

For Tywin Lannister, the father of Jaime and Cersei, this revelation presents nothing but potential disaster. A quick solution would be to deny any involvement or knowledge of the incest. As the keyword: Tywin Lannister would argue, unless there is hard, undeniable evidence (such as catching them mid-act when sober with witnesses), any claim would merely be a figment of Robert's imagination. Tywin's reputation and power hinge on his cunning and cleverness. Therefore, he would vehemently deny the accusation and stand firm on his position.

The War of Attrition

Should Robert's suspicions prove true, and Tywin refuses to take responsibility, the inevitable war becomes imminent. According to the keyword: Robert Baratheon, Tywin would be prepared to engage in a protracted and brutal conflict. He would likely seek an alliance with the Tyrells, enabling him to crush the Vale, the North, and parts of the Riverlands. This move would ensure that the Lannisters maintain their power and resources, effectively weakening their enemies.

The Strategic Alliances and Betrayals

Jon Arryn had foresight in marrying Cersei to Robert, as it prevented the aforementioned scenario. However, if it had transpired, the geopolitical landscape of Westeros would have shifted dramatically. The combination of wealth, food production, and military might of the Reach and the Westerlands would present a formidable force, capable of waging an extended war that all other Kingdoms might struggle to win. The war would drag on for 10 to 15 years, with winter exacerbating the situation by reducing the North's capacity to fight.

Immediate Consequences and Long-term Impact

Robert's reaction would be impulsive and drastic. Although Ned Stark might advise against Brutal retaliation, Robert might still seek to eliminate the Lannisters, including Cersei and her children. Tywin would face a critical challenge with his reputation tarnished and no allies left to support him. His eldest son, Tyrion, would also face punishment under the rule of the new king.

CestureRecognizer: Military and Political Maneuvers

Even if Robert initially refrained from full-scale military action, the immediate political environment would be rife with tensions. Tywin, realizing the futility of continued defiance, might hand over The Mountain (Gregor Clegane) to reduce further conflicts with the new king. Faced with these dire circumstances, Tywin might eventually offer to kneel to Robert, thus avoiding further bloodshed. However, the possibility of Tyrion marrying a suitable bride or handing over his house to Kevan is equally plausible. Given Tywin's deep-seated hatred for his son, this scenario is highly unlikely but not entirely unforeseeable.

Conclusion

The narrative of Tywin Lannister and the Baratheon-Lannister alliance is a testament to the complex and often unforgiving political landscape of Westeros. The revelation of incest would not only tear apart the Lannister family but also plunge the realm into a long, protracted conflict, drastically altering the course of Westerosi history as we know it.