Can the INC Lead the 2024 Election to Victory?

As the dust settles on the political landscape heading toward the 2024 elections in India, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerges as the clear frontrunner, making it improbable for the Indian National Congress (INC) to secure a victory without strategic alliances.

Key Players and Current Dynamics

While the BJP represents a formidable challenge, the INC still has an opportunity through a coalition with various political parties and independents. However, achieving the magic number of 272 seats necessitates a careful selection and alignment of parties with varying goals and regional interests.

The Magic Number and Party Distribution

The magic number to form a government is 272 seats, distributed as follows:

PartyVotesSeats INC9999 SP (Shiv Sena)3737 DMK2222 SSUC (Sikkim Sunray Udrop Congress)99 NCPSP (National Congress Party of State)88 RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal)44 CPIM (Communist Party of India)44 IULM (Indian Union Liberation Movement)33 AAP (Aam Aadmi Party)33 JJM (Janta Jan Morcha)33 CPI (Communist Party of India)22 CPIML (Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist))22 VCK (Veena Chandra Kant Congress)22 JKNC (Jamaat-e-Islami Hind National Council)22 RLTP (Rashtriya Loktantrik Tamsuk Party)11 RSP (Rashtriya Samajwadi Party)11 KEC (Khawar Ekta Chetna)11 BHRTADVSIP (Bharat Rastriya Toshakata Adhikarik Vyavasayik Sanghatan Insaan Sresta Pariwartan Isthan Sabha)11 MDMK (Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam)11

The total currently stands at 205 seats, falling 67 short of the magic number.

Strategic Alliances and Independent MPs

To bridge the gap, the INC must consider alliances with independent MPs and other willing parties. Their potential distribution is:

PartyVotesSeats TMC (Trinamool Congress)2929 ASPKR (Alliance of Solidarity of Progress)11 VOTPP (Voterra Political Party)11 ZPM (Zo People's Movement)11 SKM (Shiksha Kranti Morcha)11 AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen)33 Independent MPs33

With a combined total of 243 seats, only 29 more are needed.

Key Challenges and Political Calculations

However, several political parties and independents pose challenges that hinder the INC's goal.

Why TDP Won't Join the INC

The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TDP) would face significant risks if it allied with the INC. It might alienate its core supporters who are still influenced by the incrimination of the INC in the state's partition. Additionally, there is no guarantee that the Jan Java?awanti Party (JnP2) and Yadav Samajik Rajya Paksha (YSRC4) would support the INC. Chandra Babu Naidu, a seasoned politician, would likely negotiate with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to secure special status and ministerial positions for his party.

Why JDU Needs to Stay with NDA

Nitish Kumar, who has switched sides multiple times, would prefer to align with the NDA. The upcoming assembly elections in 2025 necessitate a balanced approach to ensure his party’s success. Bargaining with the NDA for ministerial positions and electoral support would be a smarter move to bolster his party's vote bank.

Why SAD Can't Join the INC

The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has a strong base in Punjab, where it is struggling with the INC and AAP. Joining the INC would be politically suicidal for the SAD and could severely damage its prospects in its core constituency.

Conclusion

Based on the current political calculus and probability, the BJP and its partner parties in the NDA are more likely to form a government in 2024. While alliances with independent MPs and willing parties might narrow the gap, the challenges faced by the INC are significant and may prove insurmountable.