Biodiversity Crisis: The Path to Extinctions or Conservation Success?

The oncoming extinction wave: The world is on course for a significant extinction rate, with experts predicting that at least one species will go extinct each year by the end of the century. Will we see an insect go extinct and barely notice, or will we mourn the loss of major zoo animals like the lion or elephant?

As conditions evolve, so do the species that thrive. For every animal species, its survival depends on the conditions it lives in. Removing forests, for instance, does not directly kill monkeys, but it affects their survival. Similarly, each species is determined by its environment, and negative changes can lead to the extinction of certain species.

However, the future is not entirely bleak. Optimistic scenarios suggest that two factors could mitigate the crisis:

Improvements in conservation techniques: If we develop more effective methods to protect and manage biodiversity, the extinction rate could be significantly lowered. Undiscovered species: Some species that were thought to be endangered might actually be thriving in areas not documented, thus changing the extinction rate projection.

Based on observed extinctions, which are around 800 species lost over the past 400 years, we have reason to expect another 164 species will go extinct by 2100. Most of these will be rare and restricted to specific islands, often unknown to the general public. This projected extinction rate is based on observed data, but it comes with considerable uncertainty.

Mass Extinction Speculations

Fears of another mass extinction are not grounded in concrete evidence. These fears are based on the assumption that for each observed extinction, there are 10 to 100 previously undiscovered species also going extinct. However, the evidence does not support this assumption, as instances of finding extinct species in museum collections are extremely rare.

Biologists who explore new areas aim to collect as many specimens as possible to identify new species. For example, ichthyologists use large seines to catch fish and preserve them, while entomologists use traps to collect and identify insects. Despite the efforts to find new species, the number of undiscovered, extinct species is negligible. This is contrary to the alarmist view that suggests high extinction rates, as it would lead to a higher number of extinct species in museum collections.

Conclusion

The biological history of our planet reveals the dynamic nature of species survival and extinction. While the future is uncertain, ongoing conservation efforts and advancements in technology offer hope for preserving biodiversity. Understanding the complexities of species survival can help us make informed decisions about conservation strategies to mitigate the ongoing crisis.