Introduction

The character of Theon Greyjoy from George R.R. Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire series, and later from the Game of Thrones TV series, has faced numerous challenges and betrayals. One intriguing scenario is what might have happened if Theon had chosen to stick to his father Balon's plan. This alternate storyline would change the course of several major events, altering the fates of key characters and shifting the balance of power in the Seven Kingdoms. Let us explore the possibilities of how sticking to Balon’s plan could have reshaped the story.

Winterfell Is Not Taken

One of the most significant outcomes of Theon following Balon's plan is the preservation of Winterfell. Without the siege and subsequent betrayal, Winterfell would not have fallen into the hands of the Lannisters and Starks. Theon's loyalty to his father’s plan would have ensured that Bran and Rickon are not killed, and crucially, that Winterfell is not sacked.

This would prevent Robb Stark from having to sleep with Jeyne Westerling, a pivotal event that leads to Catelyn releasing Jaime Lannister. Without Robb's fathering Eddard Stark, the line of succession for Winterfell remains secure via Catelyn's relationship with Robb, ensuring the continuation of Stark rule.

New Directions in Westeros

Theorizing the impact of Theon sticking to his father's plan leads us to new directions in the story, with several important events altered:

The Battle of Duskendale and Red Wedding

The absence of the Battle of Duskendale and the subsequent Red Wedding is a significant change. Instead, Robb Stark would marry Roslin Frey at the Twins, securing an alliance that goes beyond just the marriage itself. The wedding would ideally be a pleasant event, with Sansa Stark appearing to further secure the succession for Robb and his family.

This alliance would not be tainted by Jaime Lannister's release, which means there would be no betrayal and no Red Wedding. The North would remain a unified force against the Lannisters, with Robb securing key allies like the Karstarks and Freys.

Iron Islands and the North

Another significant outcome is the state of the Ironborn. If Theon had returned to the Iron Islands following Balon’s death, he would have taken over the rule and ended the Ironborn invasion into the North. This would have brought peace to the region, preventing further conflicts and ensuring stability.

With both Winterfell and the Iron Islands secured, the North would be in a stronger position, allowing Robb to focus on consolidating his rule and preparing for the Lannister threat.

Alternative Fates for Key Characters

The ramifications of this alternate storyline extend to the characters and their fates:

Catelyn and Robb

Catelyn Stark would release Jaime, maintaining her integrity and Robert Arryn's claim to the Iron Throne. Without the immediate need to secure Robb's peace through Jaime, Catelyn would not have to release him. This preserves the Karstarks in Robb's retinue, enhancing his strength and unity within the North.

Arya and the Narrow Sea

Arya Stark would return to Winterfell, potentially delaying the night she spends with Talisa Motes. This delay would lessen the emotional turmoil and impulsiveness that could lead to Robb's hasty actions and his eventual fall. Arya's return adds another layer of intrigue to the story, ensuring her presence to face the coming challenges with her family.

Theon's Respective Legacy

Theon’s respect among his family might grow if he were to earn it back by leading the Iron Islands. This makes it more likely that he would succeed Euron Greyjoy as the ruler of the Iron Isles, rather than succumbing to Euron's tyrannical rule.

Tyrion and the Wall

If Jaime is not released due to his imprisonment and death, Tyrion would not be freed to the realm. This results in Tyrion being either imprisoned or exiled to the Wall. With Tywin Lannister still alive, and the Martells and Tyrells also surviving, the Lannister power remains strong, particularly with Tommen I as the king.

This power dynamic would significantly impact the defense of the Wall. Dany’s understanding and support from Tyrion are critical in the defence plan. Without Tyrion’s input, Daenerys would likely face greater challenges in defending the Wall against the impending threat.

In conclusion, if Theon had stuck to Balon’s plan and ensured the protection of Winterfell and the Iron Islands, the Seven Kingdoms would have faced a very different outcome. These changes would have reshaped the political landscape, potentially avoiding major battles and betrayals, and securing the Starks' and other key families' claims to power.